STAFF MEMORANDUM NO. 25-61 (Internal ONE Working Paper — CIA Distribution Only)

SUBJECT: Explosive Developments in Iran

1. At the present time, Tehran is experiencing its most serious and prolonged popular demonstrations since the time of Mossadeq. These demonstrations began on 2 May as part of a teachers’ strike for higher pay. At one point the policy [police] found it necessary to use force on the crowds and killed one teacher. On 3 May somewhere between 15 and 30 thousand demonstrators surged through the streets of the city, bearing the corpse of the “martyr.” On 4 May equal if not greater numbers came out, aided by some workers, and have threatened to invade the Majlis building. The National Front plans a sizable demonstration on 5 May. The situation at this writing is by no means out of control and, indeed, relatively little violence has taken place. However, there appears to be a rising tempo of activity which, if it continues over the next several days, could seriously threaten the Shah’s throne.

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5. To correctly judge the odds and predict the survival or the imminent extinction of the Peacock Throne is not possible at present. Yet, the ingredients for a major blow-up are all present: the underlying discontent of the politically-conscious, the corruption and nepotism of the rulers, demonstrations which have already produced a martyr. [line and a half excised here] Without wishing to cry “wolf,” we believe the present situation is as serious a one as the Shah has faced since 1953. The longer it goes on, the more likely an upheaval will occur.